Posts Tagged ‘fantasy baseball pitchers’

Madison Bumgarner’s [Very] Poor Start: a Fantasy Perspective

Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011

Madison Bumgarner's concern was shared by fantasy owners across the land - unnecessarily

Madison Bumgarner last night demonstrated the trouble with judging based on recent performance.  Yes, his peripherals had been very good despite the 3-8 record.  The record is now 3-9, and his peripherals aren’t quite so appealing.

It could be called ‘The Meltdown’ – Did you see it?  No, I’m not speaking of last night’s MMA bout, but of Madison Bumgarner and his impressive one-out start.  And, yes, impressive for all the wrong reasons. The game began harmless enough, with several seeing-eye groundballs through holes in the infield.  And then several more.  And then a solid line drive to the outfield.  And then another.  And another seeing-eye single.  And now the batter is Carl Pavano, who will be Bumgarner’s first (and only) out of the ballgame, the score already 7-0 Minnesota.  The next batter, Ben Revere, graciously ended Bumgarner’s night with an RBI double, much like the axe coming down on Mel Gibson’s exposed neck in the epic “Braveheart.”  So, Bumgarner’s final line: 0.1 IP, 9 H, 0 BB, 8 ER (note that there were no errors, nor any walks involved in this seal clubbing).  For the ‘outing’, if you can call it one, that’s a WHIP of 27.00 and an ERA right around 215.  It’s actually 216.0, but I rounded down, for Bummy’s sake.

What does this mean?  Get him out of there, as far from the pitching rubber as possible – Antarctica maybe?  Australia?  They only play cricket, right?  Wrong.  Well, not about cricket, but about Bumgarner. This is an example of the law of averages, the deceptions of a small sample size, regression to the mean.  Over the past week, I don’t know how many places I have read that Bumgarner is a much better pitcher than his record indicates.  Want to write that article today?  Why not?  Is he really a worse pitcher now?  He has shown us just how bad he can be, but you shouldn’t be too surprised with the awful outing.  He kept the ball in the yard, and didn’t walk people.  The balls just didn’t bounce his way.  Sure one game is a horrendously small sample size, but Twins hitters were 9 for 9 on balls hit in play.  That smells like a ridiculously unlikely BABIP; note Madison’s season BABIP of .333.  And if you watched the first inning (the rest of the game was fairly moot), you might have recognized that Bummy’s supporting defense wasn’t exactly at their best.

What matters in Fantasy Baseball (and real baseball) is not one game, but 162.  Bumgarner is a good pitcher, not a great one, but probably good enough to grace a roster in most fantasy leagues.  More importantly, he’s also a young player.  His last start was so horrible – and unlikely – that it’s a guarantee his next will be better.

A moral to this story?  Well, bad outings and games will come, they’re a part of every player’s season.  Bumgarner had had bad luck with regards to wins and losses up to yesterday, but after last night’s debacle, it’s hard to argue that he is much better than his 4-8 record indicates.  After the loss, his WHIP for the season sits at 1.39, quite a contrast to the pretty 1.29 he sported entering yesterday.  Last year’s WHIP of 1.31 makes me think this is probably the high point. The moral is, start him, he’s the same pitcher he was two days ago, and if you have a cranky owner in your league that wants to get rid of a pitcher after his worst start of the year, take advantage and trade for him.

 

Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers (through 5/20/11)

Friday, May 20th, 2011

Justin Verlander Top Fantasy Baseball Pitcher

Justin Verlander is our top fantasy baseball pitcher so far this season

Fantasy baseball is one of the more demanding sports and brings out the true gurus among boys (and girls). While some usual workhorse studs are in the mix for the top fantasy starting pitchers of 2011, we at Fantasy Baseball Sportal are here to provide you with some names you may not be familiar with.  It will be interesting to analyze the progression of these starters towards the all-star break and even late October. Because each team has a five man rotation (~150 starters), a top ten list may leave out some honorable mentions: Trevor Cahill (OAK), Zach Britton (BAL), Kyle Lohse (STL), Jair Jurrjens (ATL), and Cole Hamels (PHI).

1) Justin Verlander – Detroit Tigers
GS    QS    IP    ER    W    L    ERA    WHIP    K    BB    H    K/9
10    10    73.0    24    4    3    2.96    0.92    71    21    46    8.75
After tossing a no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays, Verlander followed up that performance with another bid for perfection. (more…)

2011 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers: Zach Britton & Other Surprising Young Studs

Thursday, May 19th, 2011
Zach Britton

Rookie Zach Britton has been the surprise of the Orioles.

Every year, after the draft, fantasy baseball managers look to bolster their lineups with minor league talent, hoping the call to the majors is not far off.  Already in 2011 we have seen one of these moves pay off, for the Orioles as well as fantasy owners.  Zach Britton, a hard throwing lefty who has, to an extent, taken the league by storm: five wins in the first six weeks of the season, along with a sub-2.50 ERA and a phenomenal WHIP (1.02).  Is this the start of a top-of-the-rotation type career, or a sell high opportunity?

Well, probably both.  Britton is one of the top pitching prospects in the game, and he’s left-handed to boot.  His secondary stats are phenomenal, which will win fantasy leagues; under the surface his BABIP of 0.219 gives some indication that he has had the benefit of more than a few lucky bounces.  (more…)

Fantasy Baseball: Pitchers’ Report

Tuesday, April 26th, 2011

Fantasy Baseball owners should expect improvement from Garza.

Now that the baseball season is almost a month old, we have enough innings to examine the BABIPs of some of the starting pitchers out there and see if those numbers can tell us anything. Admittedly, we’re still laboring under very small sample sizes with most of them, but the data should help us sort out who’s been very lucky or unlucky and who’s going to improve or backslide as the season progresses.

It’s never too early to think about trading for a pitcher who’s under-performing and has been giving his owner headaches or — conversely — getting as much in return as you possibly can from a pitcher who’s pitching well over his head. (more…)

Josh Johnson & Roy Halladay: Which NL East Ace Will Have the Better Fantasy Season?

Monday, April 25th, 2011
Roy Halladay

Roy Halladay is an undisputed fantasy ace but will he have a better fantasy season than Josh Johnson?

When talking about the best pitchers in the National League, two of the first names that come up are Roy Halladay and Josh Johnson. Halladay has been the premier pitcher in the major leagues over the past few years and brought the Cy Young Award home for the Phillies last year, but after last season and the start of this season it looks like he finally has a legitimate challenger in Florida’s Josh Johnson. Johnson is off to a fantastic start and is looking more and more like the pitcher to own in fantasy baseball this season.

Halladay is not going to go down without a fight however. He won the NL Cy Young last year with a 21-10 record, 2.44 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP to go along with 9 complete games. (more…)