Posts Tagged ‘Fantasy Baseball Advice’

Madison Bumgarner’s [Very] Poor Start: a Fantasy Perspective

Wednesday, June 22nd, 2011

Madison Bumgarner's concern was shared by fantasy owners across the land - unnecessarily

Madison Bumgarner last night demonstrated the trouble with judging based on recent performance.  Yes, his peripherals had been very good despite the 3-8 record.  The record is now 3-9, and his peripherals aren’t quite so appealing.

It could be called ‘The Meltdown’ – Did you see it?  No, I’m not speaking of last night’s MMA bout, but of Madison Bumgarner and his impressive one-out start.  And, yes, impressive for all the wrong reasons. The game began harmless enough, with several seeing-eye groundballs through holes in the infield.  And then several more.  And then a solid line drive to the outfield.  And then another.  And another seeing-eye single.  And now the batter is Carl Pavano, who will be Bumgarner’s first (and only) out of the ballgame, the score already 7-0 Minnesota.  The next batter, Ben Revere, graciously ended Bumgarner’s night with an RBI double, much like the axe coming down on Mel Gibson’s exposed neck in the epic “Braveheart.”  So, Bumgarner’s final line: 0.1 IP, 9 H, 0 BB, 8 ER (note that there were no errors, nor any walks involved in this seal clubbing).  For the ‘outing’, if you can call it one, that’s a WHIP of 27.00 and an ERA right around 215.  It’s actually 216.0, but I rounded down, for Bummy’s sake.

What does this mean?  Get him out of there, as far from the pitching rubber as possible – Antarctica maybe?  Australia?  They only play cricket, right?  Wrong.  Well, not about cricket, but about Bumgarner. This is an example of the law of averages, the deceptions of a small sample size, regression to the mean.  Over the past week, I don’t know how many places I have read that Bumgarner is a much better pitcher than his record indicates.  Want to write that article today?  Why not?  Is he really a worse pitcher now?  He has shown us just how bad he can be, but you shouldn’t be too surprised with the awful outing.  He kept the ball in the yard, and didn’t walk people.  The balls just didn’t bounce his way.  Sure one game is a horrendously small sample size, but Twins hitters were 9 for 9 on balls hit in play.  That smells like a ridiculously unlikely BABIP; note Madison’s season BABIP of .333.  And if you watched the first inning (the rest of the game was fairly moot), you might have recognized that Bummy’s supporting defense wasn’t exactly at their best.

What matters in Fantasy Baseball (and real baseball) is not one game, but 162.  Bumgarner is a good pitcher, not a great one, but probably good enough to grace a roster in most fantasy leagues.  More importantly, he’s also a young player.  His last start was so horrible – and unlikely – that it’s a guarantee his next will be better.

A moral to this story?  Well, bad outings and games will come, they’re a part of every player’s season.  Bumgarner had had bad luck with regards to wins and losses up to yesterday, but after last night’s debacle, it’s hard to argue that he is much better than his 4-8 record indicates.  After the loss, his WHIP for the season sits at 1.39, quite a contrast to the pretty 1.29 he sported entering yesterday.  Last year’s WHIP of 1.31 makes me think this is probably the high point. The moral is, start him, he’s the same pitcher he was two days ago, and if you have a cranky owner in your league that wants to get rid of a pitcher after his worst start of the year, take advantage and trade for him.

 

Fantasy Baseball Top Prospects: Dustin Ackley Finally Gets The Call

Sunday, June 19th, 2011

Ackley got his long awaited call to the bigs last week

For the first time since its inception, the power rankings found it within itself to drop four prospects from the list this week, an all-time high. Between the overwhelming amount of prospects called up to the show early this season and the up and down performance of those already in the bigs, these changes seemed necessary. Another of the “super-hyped” prospects that fans have been waiting on for over a year made his major league debut this week, while a couple of prospects who haven’t received the same level of praise are making their mark as well. Not all of these guys will be fantasy baseball relevant right out of the gate, but they certainly warrant mentioning and absolutely need to be monitored in your respective leagues for sure.

 

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Fantasy Baseball Top Prospects: Jeremy Hellickson Hurls Himself Back Into The Picture

Friday, June 10th, 2011

Hellickson has gotten himself back on track as of late

Time can be such a cruel mistress and more often than not it gets away from us before we can fully grasp it. Some people use their time wisely, while others would much prefer to squander their precious time and pay the consequences. One caveat is that time can also be used to ones benefit if treated properly and tactfully. Jeremy Hellickson exploded onto the scene at the onset of the season and had his fantasy baseball owners expecting this youngster to anchor their respective staffs. After hitting a rough patch after the first month, many had written Hellickson off for the near future (including me), but he has stormed back and proven just about every doubter wrong. Eric Hosmer continues to show why he will undoubtedly win a batting title someday while his teammate Mike Moustakas finally joins him on the big league level. Check the words, peep game.

 

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Five Replacements for Ike Davis in Your Fantasy Baseball Lineup

Monday, May 16th, 2011

Need some names to replace Ike Davis in your fantasy baseball lineup? We've got you covered.

Many fantasy baseball teams, not to mention the Mets, were dealt a blow this week when Ike Davis (1B, NYM) went down with an ankle injury.  Davis was coming on strong in his second full season in the majors.  Thusfar, Ike Davis’ season was favorably comparable to Albert Pujols’.  How can fantasy owners cope with the loss of a guy who was the 12th ranked first baseman over thusfar in 2011?

This is where fantasy baseball gets fun.  When the perennial sluggers and first-rounders are taken, and a sudden need crops up, there is plenty of overlooked talent, available in most leagues, that can help minimize damages.   (more…)

Fantasy Baseball Top Prospects: Domonic Brown Overcomes Injury On Road To Relevance

Friday, April 29th, 2011

Domonic Brown is back healthy and doing damage

Things are starting to get interesting around the league and baseball is ready to welcome the sweltering summer months that are right around the corner. Players begin to settle into a groove and managers finally have themselves a lineup they don’t need to tinker with daily. For rookies, this of course means that they have either established themselves as contributors, fallen into a bench role or worse…been sent to the minors. Many of the phenoms we’ve seen included in this list previously have maintained their value, while others have lost it entirely. This weeks installment has that new car smell as some of my preseason picks have worked their way back into the discussion. The top of the list is still dominated by great young hurlers, but the guys found near the bottom have been impressive in their own right. Don’t lose track of these guys when determining rosters in your fantasy baseball leagues.

 

 

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