Is Albert Pujols in your lineup because of his name or his performance?

Oftentimes, fantasy baseball owners get a little caught up in the name game – allowing players to occupy their rosters based on name recognition instead of performance while better players, although not as popular, are outperforming them.

It’s important to balance the knowledge of a player’s past performance with an objective look at how they are performing in the moment.

With that in mind, here are 20 stats: 10 for well-known players and 10 for under-the-radar types.

Take what you want to from them, but here they are.

Big Name Stats

1. Albert Pujols’ strikeout rate (12.1%) is the highest it has been since 2001.

2. Clay Bucholz has a 27% HR/FB rate to go with his 9.09 ERA.

3. Since 2010, Jacoby Ellsbury has only played in 183 games.

4. Kevin Youkilis has played in 240 in that same time span.

5. Lance Berkman was hitting .348 before being injured stretching a double into a triple. He’s expected to come off the DL today.

6. Mark Reynolds is striking out in 1-out-of-3 ABs.

7. In his two home starts in 2012, A.J. Burnett has allowed only 2 ERs in 15 IPs with 17 Ks.

8. Alfonso Soriano’s walk rate is 3.8% which is his lowest since 2002. His .051 ISO is the lowest of his career.

9. Ryan Zimmerman’s BB% is up and his K% is down from his career averages. His .263 BABIP is 55 points lower than his career norm.

10. Tim Lincecum is issuing 1.3 walks more than his career average per 9 IPs.

No Name Stats

1. Chris Capuano has a 2.21 ERA for the Dodgers and has lowered his HR/FB rate by more than 4%.

2. Fernando Rodney has surrendered 2 BBs and 0 HRs in 15.2 IP. He also has 14 Ks.

3. Bryan LaHair has a 36.4% HR/FB rate which is 18.8 percent higher than what we are used to seeing out of him.

4. Since being called up to play 57 games in 2011, Jose Altuve has a .296 AVG and 12 SBs.

5. Gio Gonzalez hasn’t allowed a HR in 2012. He also has 41 Ks in 36.2 IP.

6. Kelly Johnson is tied for 12th on the MLB HRs list with 7. Others in the tie for 12th – Miguel Cabrera, Mike Napoli, and David Oritz.

7. Billy Butler is tied for 12th in the league with 23 RBIs. He also has 6 HRs and a .297 AVG.

8. John Jay has a .379 average which is good for 4th best in the majors.

9. Kyle Seager is hitting .298 with 4 HRs, 20 RBIs, and 3 SBs.

10. Tony Campana has 7 SBs in only 17 games.

You can use these nifty nuggets as you see fit. One or two stats does not define a player, but it could draw attention to problem areas or predict a star on the rise. Good luck this weekend and don’t forget to play in daily leagues for cash prizes here for FREE.

And follow me on Twitter @SteveOnSportsOK.

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Is Jeter's buzz about to flat-line?

We’ve all been there. Good times, good friends, but for whatever reason it all has to come to an end. Maybe the booze ran out. Maybe the cops show up. Maybe an ex shows up. However it happens, it signifies the end of what was perceived by all to be a good thing.

That is what I’m about to do – kill the buzz on fantasy baseball players who are performing at such a high level that they can’t maintain and should fall back to Earth sometime within the next few weeks.

If you feel like riding the hot streak, fine. If you feel like trading the player away, fine. I don’t care what you do with them, but here are some players with a buzz that is soon to flat-line.

Derek Jeter SS NYY – “The Captain” is hitting .385 on the season with 4 HRs and 13 RBIs. It’s a bit troubling that his BB% is down and he only has one stolen base. It’s also problematic that he carries a .414 BABIP. He had a .336 in 2011 and .307 in 2010.

Josh Willingham OF MIN – His ground ball rate is up 7.3% while his fly ball rate is down 7.8% from his career norms. Plus, he’s seeing more cut fastballs and curve balls than he’s used to. He may still hit for average, but don’t expect him to hit 29 dingers like he did last year.

Lance Lynn SP STL – Ok. I actually like Lance Lynn this year but we need to temper our expectations. He currently has a 1.60 ERA and 0.77 WHIP but his GB%, HR/FB, and HR/9 are all in line with his usual performance. So what explains the torrid pace he has set? Well he his a lower BABIP against than normal. His strand rate is 91.7%. Yes, you read that correctly – 91.7% of base-runners he allows currently are not scoring. That is impossible to sustain as league average can range from 70%-72% depending on the season. Not to worry too much though as his FIP and xFIP suggest that he could be a sub-3.00 ERA guy in 2012.

Bryan LaHair 1B/OF CHC – This one is my favorite. Dude has a .545 BABIP so far in 2012. League average is usually around .300. As if that wasn’t enough to change your mind about him, his K% is up to 33.8%.

Jed Lowrie 3B/SS HOU – Yes he’s locked in at the plate right now. The key phrase being “right now.” But come and listen to my story ’bout a man named Jed, he has had more than 300 PAs twice since 2007. In 2007, 2009, and 2010 he had right around 200 or less. I’ll bet he doesn’t stay healthy enough to crack 400 in 2012.

There are more guys out there to be wary of, but I figure five should be a good place to start for the average fantasy baseballer.

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Off to a slow start, but this guy is a proven fantasy stud

There are owners in every fantasy baseball league that panic after the first couple weeks and look to move great players who are off to slow starts. You can usually get a great bargain on these players. A lot of these players have proven track records and are in their prime but just had a rough couple of weeks. Fantasy Baseball is a game of longevity since the season is 162 games. There is no reason to dump a proven fantasy producer when we are not even 20 games into the season.

 When you play fantasy baseball you have to be patient, every player goes through a slump throughout such a long season. Why would you trade Albert Pujols because he has struggled a little through the first 2 weeks when he averages 30 homers and 100 runs batted in every year. Players that are proven to produce every year should be given the benefit of doubt to produce unless you get wowed by an offer. You have your occasional Adam Dunn who just had a dreadful year last year, but for the most part when a player has produced year after year, then as long as he is healthy, he will produce.

 There are certain circumstances where it might be time to trade a player such as: he is getting up there in age and his production has slowly gone down over the last few years, this player had a breakout season last year but he is injury prone or you are in a keeper league and you can get a younger player with great potential for an older player that is at the end of his career. I am going to give you ideas of guys that might be available for trade in your league because of slow starts. You should really think about trading for these guys because one good move can put you over the top and win you a fantasy baseball championship.

Ben Zobrist(2B, OF, Tampa Bay) This guy is off to a slow start but has a track record of producing in lots of needed categories. He also offers the flexibility of being eligible at multiple positions.

Season Stats- .183 3 HR 10 RBI 1 SB

Last 3 seasons average- .267 19 HR 85 RBI 20 SB

Nick Markakis(OF, Baltimore) This guy has been a consistent fantasy player for years and his slow start should give you an opportunity to trade for him.

Season Stats- .244 2 HR 9 RBI 0 SB

Last 3 seasons average- .291 15 HR 78 RBI 8 SB

Shin-Soo-Choo(OF, Indians) This guy dealt with injuries last year but has been one of the best all-around fantasy baseball outfielders in the past.

Season Stats- .237 0 HR 9 RBI 3 SB

Last 3 seasons stats- .291 16 HR 71 RBI 18 SB

Carl Crawford(OF, Red Sox) This guy had a rough first season in Boston and he is injured right now but will produce when he comes back. The track record on this guy is too good for him to struggle for a second season.

Season Stats- Injured

Last 3 seasons average- .290 15 HR 71 RBI 52 SB

Tim Lincecum(SP, Giants) His velocity is down to start the year which isn’t uncommon for a starting pitcher early in the year. This guy has a track record of success so bank on him coming back to his self soon. He has been a fantasy baseball stud his whole career.

Season Stats- 2 W 2 L  9.79 ERA  29 SO 1.58 WHIP

Last 3 seasons average: 15 W 10 L 2.89 ERA 237 SO 1.18 WHIP

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2012 Fantasy Baseball: Pick 'Em Up!

In the movie ‘Dumb and Dumber’ Harry and Lloyd are driving down the road singing “Mockingbird” about to get whacked by a hitman who is riding with them when they see a Hispanic family on the side of the road. “Pick ‘em up,” says Lloyd.

The hitman holsters the gun he was about to use on them and Harry and Lloyd are safe for the time-being.

Fantasy baseball can be a lot like that. Your team’s early performance could be about to put you in a hole early in the season, but a few well-timed pickups could either turn everything around for you or at least keep you in the game until your slow-starters come around.

The following are players owned in less than 50 percent of most leagues who could have an immediate positive impact on your team.

Gerardo Parra OF Arizona Diamondbacks – He looks to have added some pop and speed to his arsenal after hitting 8 HRs with 15 SBs in 144 games in 2011. He already has 2 HRs, 4 SBs, 8 Rs, and 6 RBIs (after yesterday’s Grand Slam) and will continue to see action as long as Chris Young and Justin Upton are sidelined.

Jose Altuve 2B Houston Astros - Altuve has decent speed and won’t hurt your batting average. He’s red hot right now and although he could turn out to be an empty-average hitter, right now he could be just the piece to give your middle infield a boost. After all, average, runs, and stolen bases count in Roto and H2H leagues.

Darwin Barney 2b Chicago Cubs - See Altuve, Jose. But seriously, less speed than Altuve with .293 AVG, 8 Rs, 1 HR, and 7 RBIs in 2012. He’s a Top 12-15 second-baseman this year.

Alejandro De Aza OF Chicago White Sox - His 2012 BABIP (.279) is 62 points lower than his career average hinting that he is a bit unlucky to start off the season. Yet, he still has managed a .268 AVG with 14 Rs, 3 HRs, 7 RBIs, and 2 SB. If he’s available in your league don’t worry – he’s legit. Plus, with guys like Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford on the DL he could really give your team an edge in the outfield.

Bartolo Colon SP Oakland A’s - The portly right-hander is off to a great start with a 3-1 record in four starts with a 2.63 ERA, .080 WHIP, and 19 Ks to only 2 BBs. I think his ERA will come up to the 3.20 range but he pitches in a pitchers park and gets to share a division with the Seattle Mariners. Not a bad combo.

Jason Vargas SP Seattle Mariners - A 2.84 ERA and 19 Ks thus far Vargas pitches in the friendly confines of Safeco and gets to share a division with the lowly Oakland A’s. He has a 0.99 WHIP in-spite of 7 BBs through four starts. Pick him up for his home starts against anyone but the Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox, etc., and also use him on the road against lesser offenses.

Tips:

1. These guys may or may not be available in your league, but if they are they could provide a substantial boon to teams who have slow-starting and/or DL players. If they are not available in your league then do a little research. Finding and claiming Waiver Wire gems are an important part to succeeding in fantasy baseball.

2. Don’t get caught up in name recognition. Use the statistics. Never be afraid to cut-bait with an established player (such as Adam Dunn in 2011) for an up-and-comer who could be the next Starlin Castro.

3. Have fun. If you want to pick up a player because he’s on the team you watch play four times per week then, by all mean, pick him up and root for him. Have a little fun with it (with the caveat, of course, that it could hinder your team’s performance a little bit). Folks play fantasy baseball for two reasons. Fun and competition. If you put more emphasis on fun then good for you. If you just want to win then good for you too.

Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveOnSportsOK

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Is Carlos Pena for real?

Every fantasy baseball season there are players who get off to hot starts. Some of them maintain a high level of production for the entire season (think Matt Kemp in 2011) and others seem to hit a wall after performing well early on.

The importance of determining which players will continue to do well and who will fall off is crucial in managing your team. A player who is off to a hot start for your team but who you think can’t continue to rake should be traded while their value is at a maximum level.

A player on another team who does the same thing should be recognized and avoided in any potential trade offers.

Let’s take a look at some players by position and see who is for real this year and who has had fictitious performances thus far. (All stats are as of Monday afternoon)

Catcher

For Real – Johnathan Lucroy MIL – He may not be flashy but he has some pop and should be able to get you 15-20 HRs to go with a .270-ish AVG. Not too shabby for a guy who is still out there on a lot of Waiver Wires.

Fictitious – Yadier Molina STL – A career .274 hitter who has never hit more than 14 HRs in a season, he currently has a .353 AVG and is averaging a HR per 3.33 games started. His career average is a HR per 16.44 games started.

1B

For Real – Adrian Gonzales BOS – He has a HR and 7 RBIs and looks to be finally healthy from a nagging shoulder injury that plagued him through 2011 when he hit 27 HRs and 118 RBIs.

Fictitious – Carlos Pena TB – He has only hit better than .250 in a full MLB season once in his career and is currently sitting at .353 with 3 knocks and 11 RBIs. His Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) sits at .429 on the season. His career BABIP is just .279.

2B

For Real – Ian Kinsler TEX – He’s got legitimate 30 HR/30 Steal potential and, although he had a .255 AVG last year, he does have multiple .280-plus and even a .319 season under his belt.

Fictitious – Omar Infante MIA – Omar is hitting .343 in 2012 or .067 higher than his career norm. He also as 4 HRs on the young season but has only hit more than 9 HRs in a season once in his professional career.

3B

For Real – Adrian Beltre TEX – A career .276 hitter, Beltre seems to be doing well in the hitter’s park known as Arlington Stadium hitting .296 there in 2011 and .289 currently with a HR and 6 RBIs. The Rangers offense is loaded and so is Beltre’s boomstick.

Fictitious – David Freese STL – Currently nursing a finger injury, the World Series hero is off to a torrid start with a .400-plus average, with 3 HRs and 11 RBIs. Maybe he’s figured it out, but 1.) He’s not going to hit .400 for the entire season and 2.) why not trade him if you own him while his value is the highest it will be all season?

SS

For Real – Hanley Ramirez MIA – Yes he still qualifies at SS in most every league I’ve seen. And it looks like he got a bit unlucky with a low BABIP last year that contributed to his meager .243 AVG. He’s hitting .287 right now with 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, and 2 SBs. This could be his first 30/30 season since 2008 and should at least get you 25/25 with decent AVG, Runs, and RBIs.

Fictitious – Derek Jeter NYY – “The Captain” has a .366 AVG with 2 HRs and 6 RBIs, but only hit 6 HRs in 2011 as his Isolated Power is on a gradual decline. If you own him you should be able to trade him to a newbie based on his name recognition and early 2012 performance. If not, try the “he’s on a rebound year” thing.

OF

For Real – Andre Ethier LAD – A .280/30/90 season in 2012 is not out of the question for Ethier. His low 2011 numbers were likely a result of a nagging hand injury through which he still managed to hit for average. He hit 31 HRs in 2009 in 685 ABs and 23 in 2010 despite 100 fewer ABs.

Fictitious – Shelley Duncan CLE – Maybe the epitome of a AAAA player, Duncan has never hit higher than .260 in any MLB season although he did show some flashes of power in 2010 and 2011. He’s hitting .320 thus far in 2012 with 2 HRs in his last 4 games but with a bloated .353 BABIP and .280 ISO which he won’t be able to maintain. Plus, if the rumors are true, his spot may be going to Johnny Damon anyway.

One of the great things about fantasy baseball is that owners are free to manage their team(s) as they see fit. If you think a player can maintain a high level of performance although never previously showing it then, by all means, do the research and make up your own mind about him.

But buying low and selling high requires that owners not get attached to players or wrapped up in name recognition. Even I have a couple players that a will draft and keep every year no matter what their performance because I enjoy watching them play for my fantasy team.

In the long run though, the better fantasy owners are the ones who rely on the stats and their research to evaluate players.

Good luck in 2012 and don’t forget to play in daily fantasy baseball leagues for cash prizes here, and follow me on Twitter @SteveOnSportsOK.

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