Daily Fantasy Must Starts: Monday July 30th

Daily Fantasy Baseball Must StartsPicking good hitters is one thing, but by looking at pitchers split stats, you can forecast bad/good outings, and react accordingly.

Value plays:

Texas Rangers – Ervin Santana may well be pitching for his spot in a loaded Angels rotation, and if the past is any indicator, he could not have picked a worse team to face. The Rangers boast one of the best lineups in all of baseball, and their core players rip the cover off of the ball when Santana toes the rubber. Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler, and Michael Young are all batting at least .360 (in a minimum of 33 career at bats) against the righty, setting the stage for the power bats of Texas. While Josh Hamilton has struggled of late, something that won’t last long, Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz have connected for nearly as many HR’s (8) as singles (12) against Santana. Opponents are batting .305 when Santana pitches on the road, leading to an astronomical 6.96 ERA. I would not bet against a team full of Rangers in a daily fantasy baseball game today.

Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez – A matchup against the Astros is never a bad thing for your fantasy baseball batters, and in the cases of Hart and Ramirez, it is a can’t miss opportunity. The two Brewers are batting .385 against Bud Norris with 4 homers in 26 at bats. Combine that with Norris’ unexplainable struggles on the road (2-7 with a 7.46 ERA) and you’ve got yourself a few mid level options who figure to produce like all stars tonight.

Alfonso Soriano – Selecting any Cub comes with considerable risk, but Soriano is worth taking a flier on tonight against Erik Bedard. He swings a heavy bat and has put it to use in the past against the Pirates lefty, recording a .545 batting average with 66.7% of his hits going for extra bases. Bedard is another pitcher who has unfavorable road splits, as he holds a 3-7 record with a lousy 5.90 ERA. That should continue against even the weak hitting Cubs, with Soriano batting 39 points higher at Wrigley.

 

Players to avoid:

Oakland Athletics – I am as surprised as any one that the A’s have dominated July, but as the month ends, so does their hot streak. David Price and the Rays come to town tonight and figure to halt the magic in Oakland. The current A’s are batting .240 against Price, which isn’t too bad of a number, but they have more strikeouts (25) than hits (18). Price thrives when he can avoid big innings by striking batters out and the A’s have done just that in the past. It is hard enough to get multiple hits off of the Rays ace in an inning, and even if they do, the odds favor Price coming up with a big K. When hits are hard to come by a HR is a quick way of getting on the board, but no current Athletic has taken Price deep. Don’t pay for the first 29 days of the month, as in a one game format, the Oakland roster is filled with players to avoid in daily fantasy baseball leagues.

New York Mets – Madison Bumgarner is a very good pitcher who transforms into an elite pitcher at his spacious home ballpark. The lefty is 7-1 with a sparkling 1.49 ERA at home, and the Mets are a very little threat to change that. No current Met has more than 1 hit against Bumgarner and they have struck out as many times as they have reached base against the craft Giant. A .152 team batting average may be in part due to a small sample size, but it is impossible to justify rostering any of the New York hitters.

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